Academy Awards will be given out on Feb 24, and this is what I think:
Best Picture: If the average voter age is more than 60, Steven Spielberg‘s Lincoln (2012), should win. If it is 50, Ben Affleck‘s Argo (2012) has a very good chance of winning Oscar for Best Motion Picture, despite no nomination for Best Directing. Bottom line is that the Academy seems to like biographical epic movies, so it will be Lincoln (2012). In 1983, Richard Attenborough‘s Gandhi (1982) beat a more popular E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (1982)if that’s any indication. The dark horse will be Michael Haneke‘s Amour(2012), but foreign film seldom wins Oscar, so I predict it will win Best Picture in Foreign Language, like 1998’s Roberto Benigni‘s Life Is Beautiful(1997).
Best Male Actor in a Leading Role: Hugh Jackman in Les Misérables (2012), the voters probably see more as musical talent, so it is a No for Hugh. Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook (2012) came out strong after having garnered nominations for all prestige awards, but the fact that he had not collected one hardware at the Golden Globes nor the SAG means his chance of winning is slim, like Hugh Jackman or Denzel Washington in Flight (2012). Joaquin Phoenix in The Master (2012), a wrong script at a wrong time…So it has to be Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln (2012).
**Daniel Day-Lewis– YES
Best Female Actor in a Leading Role: Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook (2012) nailed this! The Academy always likes to promote a young good female actor, I think she is “it”. Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty (2012), if she wins, that will be the surprise of the night. Emmanuelle Riva, Quvenzhané Wallis and Naomi Watts, therefore, are probably not going to win in this category either.
Best Directing is too technical for me even to attempt to guess, so no comments, but interesting to see if they will give this to an emerging young director, Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild (2012), to prove a point: we like young people, too. Michael Haneke for Amour(2012)? unlikely. Besides, other than the two here, the other three had won before: Ang Lee, Steven Spielberg and David O. Russell.
We will see, won’t we?